Clean Engineering, Unstable Measurement: A Preregistered Reliability Failure of Black-Box LLM Observers on Shared Endpoints

arXiv:2609.04198v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language-model judges now gate training data, score generations, and drive leaderboards.

The judge is then a measurement instrument, resting on one rarely stated assumption: the same request, sent to the same model name, reads the same tomorrow.

We audited that assumption in two preregistered campaigns with every threshold fixed in advance; neither got past validating its instrument. Across 52,988 audited request attempts, same-window repeat rankings agreed at Spearman 0.400 against a required 0.90, and byte-identical next-day replays agreed at 0.78 against a required 0.99, each time with the execution record at ceiling.

Three mechanisms explain the gap: a label-to-meaning mapping that biased readouts as strongly as the signal; candidate gaps seven orders of magnitude below the instrument's own noise floor; and byte-identical inputs returning different rankings, a noise that exact-permutation readouts compound. Neither metric substitution nor sampling repaired it on the tested grid.

Preregistered follow-ups bound the problem: waiting did not help on the days sampled (0.805 versus 0.800, replicated over five further days); switching providers did not help (four providers share the floor, medians 0.74 to 0.88, predicted by none of the metadata fields they expose); self-hosting on batch-invariant kernels helped only while the server was quiet; and on constructed errors with known gaps, the readout's separation tracks error type, not size.

We distill the evidence into a three-level snapshot-identity ladder, eight design rules, and a reporting checklist; a pilot at roughly 2% of the study's call volume would have exposed both unreachable gates in advance. All results concern externally measured behaviour on shared serving infrastructure.

On a shared endpoint, a model name is not a frozen instrument; a preregistered evaluation must measure its instrument before freezing any gate on it.