The Answer Is Not the Argument

arXiv:2609.00264v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Chain-of-thought monitoring is proposed for AI oversight, yet evaluations often provide monitors with a trusted reference answer.

We ask whether answer access improves reasoning verification or mainly exposes incorrect conclusions.

We collected 237 step-numbered solutions to 79 Humanity's Last Exam physics questions from three frontier models, with no inserted errors, and independently labelled final-answer correctness and the first false step. The reference standard combined physicist annotations, an independent LLM debate, and source-masked adjudication.

This yielded 24 critical traces in which the answer was correct but the trace contained a genuine error. 8 LLM monitors evaluated traces blind, with an unverified or certified answer, or after a blind commitment. Certification raised mean balanced accuracy from 0.637 to 0.796, while exact first-error localization rose from 0.261 to 0.379.

Certification changed recall (the fraction of error traces flagged as erroneous) from 0.653 to 0.951 on wrong-answer traces but from 0.521 to 0.438 on critical traces; the contrast had the same direction for all 8 monitors (question-bootstrap 95% CI [+0.256, +0.506]).

After blind commitment, monitors shown the answer newly flagged 93.8% of previously passed wrong-answer traces as erroneous, but only 18.0% of critical traces. Answer access therefore improves conclusion-consistency checking rather than independent verification of the supporting argument.

For AI safety, these traces provide a benign analogue of reward hacking: an acceptable output does not establish that the process producing it was sound. Although the errors studied here were ordinary and mostly non-load-bearing rather than adversarial, trusted-answer evaluations may similarly overstate monitoring capability when acceptable outputs conceal unsound reasoning.